The Role of Russian Propaganda in the Peace Between Azerbaijan and Armenia

Karabakh, a landlocked region in the South Caucasus is the reason for a decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan lasted for exactly 30 years.

There is another country close to the region, always attempting to assert its interests on the two countries - Russia.

However, Russia, one of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (established in 1992 by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), now the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), to encourage a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh), has been unable to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict during these thirty years.

In 2020, during the Second Karabakh War, Russia sought to present itself as a peacekeeper by deploying forces to enforce a ceasefire and secure the Lachin Corridor. Content with the established status quo, where Karabakh was reintegrated into Azerbaijan with Russian peacekeepers, Russia intended to maintain this arrangement until 2025. Despite their presence, conflicts persisted between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While the active phase of the Karabakh conflict has concluded, tensions endure due to unproductive negotiations that have yet to yield a lasting peace.

However, what has hindered the attainment of peace thus far? What role does Russia play in these peace efforts? Why does Russia, ostensibly working towards peace, endeavor to position itself as a party in the conflict rather than maintaining a neutral stance?

Whenever the prospect of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan arises, we encounter statements from the Russian government and officials, often followed by renewed hostilities between the two countries. This pattern is how the last peace treaty became part of history.

Let's take a look to statements, primarily expressed after the Second Karabakh War, by Russian government officials.

One of the statements came from Russian President Vladimir Putin after the Second Karabakh War, in which he stated, "Armenia could have stopped the war and retained control of Shusha."

This statement arises as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faces mounting criticism for his management of the war and ceasefire negotiations. The noteworthy assertion is likely to intensify the pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who is confronting a significant political challenge due to his handling of the war and his country's defeat. With this statement, Putin appears to be attempting to fuel another source of conflict.

Another statement was issued by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova: "It is difficult to assess Yerevan's position when their official statements differ so significantly."

She said Yerevan's decision to pull out of peace talks set for last month in Moscow "prevented us from discussing the peace treaty", adding: "If our Armenian partners are really interested in solving these problems ... then instead of engaging in scholasticism, it is necessary to continue working together."

The statement begins by expressing difficulty in assessing Yerevan's position, citing significant disparities in their official statements. This framing implies a lack of transparency or consistency on the part of Yerevan, potentially casting doubt on their intentions or commitment to the peace process. Such framing has the potential to shape public opinion in a manner aligning with Russia's narrative. The reference to Yerevan's decision to withdraw from peace talks in Moscow is presented as an obstacle to discussing a peace treaty. By attributing the breakdown of discussions to Yerevan's actions, the statement implicitly assigns blame to the Armenian side. This framing may serve to justify Russia's position or actions in the ongoing negotiations. In any case, Russia appears to be fostering conflict rather than working towards peace.

According to the vox pop conducted within the Myth Detector Lab Project, a majority of the local population surveyed in Azerbaijan asserted that Russia was the primary obstacle to peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Some respondents, although unable to speak on camera, also conveyed that they believed Russia to be the main hindrance to peace in the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The first respondent mentioned that their relationships with Armenians have been good:

"Before the first Karabakh war, we lived together with Armenians. We attended each other’s weddings and funerals. Some countries, especially Russia, don't want peace between Armenians and Azerbaijanis."

“Russia incited the nations and made everyone hit each other. But then Putin saw that Azerbaijan is a powerful force.” - says another respondent.

Zaur Shiriyev is Crisis Group's Analyst for South Caucasus. As he mentions, Russian propaganda is effective because it aims to preserve Russia's own interests.

The international expert believes that Russia has a spoiler effect:

"Russia can act as a spoiler, but it also depends on Armenia and Azerbaijan whether they allow Russia the opportunity to play the spoiler role."

According to Ahad Ahadli, an Azerbaijani employee of "Fakt Yoxla," a member of the international Fact Check network operating in Azerbaijan, he mentioned that they did not work on a specific topic related to the role of Russian propaganda in the peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“I think that disinformation, misinformation and propaganda are also a form of manifestation of reduced expression. It is not right to fight against them with repressive, harsh, administrative resources. Both people and the media can lie. This is normal.”

A. Ahadli emphasized the importance of readers' evaluation. Reader feedback should be taken into consideration. Preventing the spread of propaganda can be achieved through the promotion of media freedom. Consequently, a greater number of information resources will emerge, providing people with access to more alternative perspectives. This, in turn, will foster increased confidence in those disseminating the truth.

Following the research survey among the population in Azerbaijan and considering international expert opinions, a conclusion can be drawn that, despite Russia consistently portraying itself as a peacemaker, it often reveals itself as the Grey Cardinal of the Caucasus. Russia seeks to project an image of being the architect of peace and truces between the two countries. However, if Russia were genuinely successful in fostering peace, the question arises: why did the conflict erupt? It appears that Russia was compelled to shift its focus away from the Caucasus due to its involvement in the conflict with Ukraine.

Before the second Karabakh war, Putin aimed to present himself as a neutral party in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, now he is attempting to place blame on Pashinyan instead. While he previously did not assert that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, he now makes such statements. This shift is attributed to Pashinyan distancing himself from Russia and moving towards the West. Putin's interests consistently clash with those of the West.

Author: Ulviyya Karimova Shahin